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Football News: Finishing positions for the bottom half of the Premier League

We're now into the final third of the season with 11 games left. I've had a look at the remaining fixtures for all teams placed from Bournemouth down to the foot of the table.

Southampton - Burnley, Stoke, Newcastle, Swansea, West Ham, Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester City, Bournemouth, Everton, Manchester City.
Bournemouth - Newc, Leics, Tottenham Hotspur, West Brom, Watford, CP, Liverpool, Manchester United, Saints, Swans, Burnley.
Watford - Everton, West B, Arsenal, Liv, Bourne, Burnley, Hudds, CP, Spurs, Newc, Man U.
West Ham - Liv, Swans, Burnley, Man U, Saints, Chelsea, Stoke, Arsenal, City, Leics, Everton.
Newcastle - Bourne, Liv, Saints, Spurs, Hudds, Leics, Arsenal, Everton, West B, Watford, Chelsea.
Brighton - Swans, Arsenal, Everton, City, Leics, Hudds, CP, Spurs, Burnley, Man U, Liv.
Palace - Spurs, Man U, Chelsea, Hudds, Liv, Bourne, Bright, Watford, Leics, Stoke, West B.
Swansea - Brighton, West H, Hudds, Saints, Man U, West B, Everton, City, Chelsea, Bourne, Stoke.
Huddersfield- West B, Spurs, Swans, CP, Newc, Bright, Watford, Chelsea, Everton, City, Arsenal.
Stoke - Leics, Saints, City, Everton, Arsenal, Spurs, West H, Burnley, Liv, CP, Swans.
West Brom - Hudds, Watford, Leics, Bourne, Burnley, Swans, Liv, Man U, Newc, Spurs, CP

In my opinion, Brighton have the toughest run in as they face not only 5 of the best teams in the league but several others in the top 10. Their easiest game is vs Huddersfield but as they'll be fighting against relegation too, even that game could be tough. Their final 3 games are against Burnley, Man U and Liverpool which could prove decisive in where they end the season.

Next come West Ham and West Brom with 8 unfancied games each. The former face 5 of the top 6 in the league with perhaps only the Stoke game being an expected win for them. West Brom only face 3 of the top 6 teams but with their form as it is and losing Sturridge to injury for several weeks, I don't think they'll fancy many of their fixtures.

I think Stoke, Saints, Huddersfield and Bournemouth come next with 7 unfancied games each. Stoke and Huddersfield face 4 of the top 6 with Stoke arguably facing the tougher run-in as they face Leicester, Burnley and Everton. Huddersfield by contrast have a number of games against teams in the bottom half and will look to gather as many points as they can.


Their final 4 games look very tricky though with Chelsea, City, Everton and Arsenal finishing off their season. I've grouped Bournemouth with this lot as they face 3 of the top 6, plus Burnley, Leicester and several teams on an upward curve at the moment.

Saints face only 3 of the top 6, plus Burnley, Everton and Leicester. We simply must capitalise on the other 5 games, accruing as many points as we can and we must also ensure we are safe before the last game of the season as we face Man City, who'll be tough to get anything against even if the league is won.

Watford, Newcastle and CP each face 4 of the top 6 and at least one other team in a strong position but the rest of their games are against teams in and around the bottom half that they will hope to capitalise on.

Finally, there's Swansea who face only 3 of the top 6 and the rest of their games are against teams in the bottom half. If they maintain current form until the end of the season, this run-in should see them reach safety.

With West Brom and Stoke quite high up the list of difficult run-ins, I think they'll really struggle to stay up unless things swing dramatically for them. Brighton also face such a tough run, they may stumble before reaching the finishing line. Otherwise, that final spot is most likely to be taken up by us or Huddersfield unless we can string some results together. I reckon we could need as little as 34 points to stay up this season but we should still be aiming for 40 at this stage to give us a comfortable finish.

What I can't really account for at this stage is changes in form, injuries, the big 6 fielding weakened sides as they continue to progress in European competition/ domestic cups so this projection is only based on how everyone is fairing at the moment, but I currently think the bottom half will look like this. Could obviously swap a few places around but you get the gist.

10. Bournemouth 40 points
11. West Ham 38 points
12. Swansea 37 points
-. Crystal Palace 37 points
-. Watford 37 points
15. Newcastle 36 points
16. Saints 34 points
-. Huddersfield 34 points
18. Brighton 33 points
19. Stoke 31 points
20. West Brom 27 points

What does everyone else think?

Written by figodasilva February 14 2018 16:32:44