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Football News: Champions League Preview: Liverpool FC vs AS Roma

Champions League Preview: Liverpool FC vs AS Roma
Image from: Givemesport.com

Introduction

This would have been a much easier to preview to write 4 weeks ago! Roma have thrown a bit of a spanner in the works by seriously mixing up the tactics in recent weeks though.

Pretty much all season, they have usually played a 4-3-3, occasionally switching to a more conservative 4-2-3-1. In fact, you could accurately predict their tactics most weeks. However, Eusebio Di Francesco has used a 3-5-2 system in recent weeks.

This new system has seen Juan Jesus come in at left centre back to make a back 3 alongside Federico Fazio and Costas Manolas.

That's allowed Aleksander Kolarov (who has assisted 7 goals this season; joint highest in the Roma squad) down the left and Alessandro Florenzi down the right, the freedom to push much higher up.

Florenzi and Kolarov both have a stunning delivery from wide areas that main striker, Edin Dzeko, absolutely thrives on. Alternative wing back options Jonathon Silva and Bruno Peres offer much more pace, but less quality, so they are unlikely to start at Anfield.

This extra centre back has seen one of Roma's front players bite the bullet. Whilst Dzeko has consistently headed up the front 3, the two wide players have been largely rotated.

Stephen El Shaarawy, Diego Perotti, Patrik Schick and Cengiz Ünder have been the main players used. Schick and Ünder are arguably the best individuals but have been used carefully due to their tender age.

Since the tactical switch, Schick, despite having the fewest goals of the quartet, is the player who has been preferred as a strike partner for Dzeko. He is likely seen as a good foil, and he is more comfortable in central areas than the alternatives.

If a front 3 is decided on, it is most likely we will see Ünder and Perotti either side of Dzeko. It could just as easily be El Shaarawy and Schick though. They are rotated that much that you can only take a guess.

The Roma midfield is more predictable. I fully expect the trio will be Kevin Strootman, Danielle De Rossi and of course, the talismanic Radja Nainggolan. It is a tough tackling and hard working machine.

Take nothing away from the trio's ability on the ball though. They can control a game, it's just that if the tables are turned, they will not be remotely phased by having to get stuck in. Lorenzo Pellegrini also offers a bit of quality from the bench.

As for Liverpool, it will be a 4-3-3 for sure and like any other Liverpool fan, I could likely name the starting XI for all but the midfield. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will start, so the only question is which other two start from Jordan Henderson, Georginio Wijnaldum and James Milner.

Key Battles

With Roma's tactics so unpredictable right now, this is a very hard game to analyse in advance. I suspect that the system at Anfield will be a back 3. Maybe this unpredictability is intentional to throw my preview into disarray?

With Florenzi and Kolarov the main sources of creativity after Nainggollan, Di Francesco will not want them pegged back by Sadio Mane and Mo Salah. The importance of an away goal cannot be over stated and they are likely the best source of service for Dzeko.

Manolas and Jesus are both quick for centre backs anyway, so don't struggle defending in wide areas generally. Having said that, no front 3 they have faced this season can match Liverpool's, quite frankly, because they don't have Salah.

This will be Roma's greatest test so far this season, particularly defensively. If they do play a back 4, it will stifle their threat in wider areas, but if they play a back 3, history shows us that Salah will have a field day with all the gaps that appear when 3 players are spread too thin.

They will not be looking forward to the return of their former star player at all. They have talked about having a "special" plan to stop him. Well maybe that is why Jesus could come into the side, because they need a miracle!

At the other end, Liverpool need to be on their guard. Dzeko is a goal scoring machine and he thrives on balls into the box. Whether he attacks them directly, or anticipates where they will drop, he loves a scrappy goal; goals which Liverpool seem to give away in abundance.

They key for Liverpool is to cut the supply. Florenzi and Kolarov can both cross from deeper areas and don't need to beat their man, because they have great quality on the ball. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson will need to close them down early.

The midfield will be a physical scrap at times and pass mastery at others, with possession likely to be somewhat split. I'd expect it to be around 55% in Liverpool's favour purely because they are at home, but they may miss the warrior approach of Emre Can.

This game will be won or lost in the wide areas in my opinion. Can Liverpool cut the supply to Dzeko, and can Roma stop Salah and Mane without sacrificing their offensive wing backs?

Injuries

Liverpool:
Nathaniel Clyne (slight doubt)
Joel Matip (out)
Emre Can (out)
Adam Lallana (out)

Roma:
Diego Perotti (slight doubt)
Aleksander Kolarov (slight doubt)
Rick Karsdorp (out)
Gregoire Defrel (out)

With Liverpool's mini injury crisis averted, both sides go into this game pretty much at full strength if Kolarov is fit to start, which will make it an even better game!

Prediction

For me, this is only going one way at Anfield if Jurgen Klopp fires his troops up. Roma are clearly worried. Nainggolan himself has publically admitted that Liverpool were the team he most wanted to avoid playing!

That fear factor that Liverpool have in Europe, particularly at Anfield, is enough on it's own to win a game for them at times. I can see Liverpool pretty much controlling the first leg. They will come out guns blazing so don't be at all surprised if they lead at half time.

I think Liverpool will go out in the second half and build on it this time, unlike when Manchester City came out and pegged them back in the last round. My prediction for this game is a 3-1 victory to Liverpool. Roma are good at set pieces so that may be where any goals come from for them.

The saving grace for Roma is Alisson Becker. As one of the best keepers in the world, he has the quality to keep Roma in the tie throughout sustained periods of pressure. It could be one of them games where Liverpool fans will be saying "We could have scored 6 but for their keeper".

Liverpool must show Roma full respect to make their superior ability count. Roma play with a lot of passion despite their aging legs, and they showed against Barcelona that it is enough to significantly beat a very good team if they get complacent.

I don't think Jurgen Klopp or his players will do that though. They will want this trophy to cap offer what will otherwise be another season in which Liverpool have flattered to deceive. They have no right to be arrogant in a competition they've not won in over a decade.

Written by Adam Jones April 23 2018 20:28:43