Leeds and the Run-In: Can We Reach 40 Points?

Leeds look to have a clear route to safety if they can find 10 points from the final 12 games. The run-in also puts pressure on West Ham and Forest.

Moving into the run-in, I am still using 40 points as the safety mark, and that leaves Leeds needing 10 points from our remaining 12 games. Based on our recent form after the formation change, it feels achievable, but it is still going to need a bit of composure in the big moments.

Where Leeds Can Find the Points

The home fixtures are where it looks most realistic. Sunderland, Wolves and Burnley at Elland Road are the obvious opportunities, and Brentford and Brighton also feel like games where we can take home points if we are at it.

Away from home, Tottenham and West Ham on the final day is exactly the kind of match you do not want to be an us-or-them situation. The tougher trips, Villa, Man City and Man United, are bonus points and free hits in my eyes, but you would still back us to scrape together what we need overall.

Who Else Is Really in Trouble?

Brighton are the next team people look at, but I just do not see them struggling enough to get dragged right in. They only need a few wins to settle it and their remaining games include fixtures like Wolves, Forest and Spurs.

Tottenham have recently brought in a new manager and, needing 11 points for safety, it feels well and truly in their own hands. With matches like Palace, Forest, Brighton, Wolves and Leeds, they have probably got too many winnable games to go down.

West Ham and Forest: The Ones to Watch

West Ham have been on an impressive run and they do have quality, and it seems Nuno has them playing. Even so, I do not see them putting two or three wins together on the bounce with the fixture list they have got. If they need 16 points to reach 40, it is hard to see where those points come from with games like Liverpool away, Man City at home, Villa away, Arsenal at home and Newcastle away. Another 10 points or so would still keep them short of that target.

That leaves Forest needing 13 points for 40. In theory it is in their hands with games against Brighton, Spurs, Fulham and Burnley, but with their new manager I do not see it happening. Their run-in looks the hardest on paper and, with Europa fixtures in there as well, they look like the side who just will not get enough points. Add in matches against Liverpool, City, Villa, Newcastle, Chelsea and Man United and I cannot see enough there based on what we have seen from them so far this season.

The Liverpool Factor

One other team that could play a big part is Liverpool. With seven of their next eight fixtures against sides down the bottom, including Forest, West Ham, Wolves, Spurs, Brighton, Fulham and Palace, they will have their own ambitions and should be looking at winning most of them.

They have been hit and miss this season, but if it is more hits against the teams below us than misses, that could be incredibly helpful in our own quest to stay in the league.

My predicted bottom end from here is Wolves 20th, Burnley 19th, Nottingham Forest 18th, West Ham 17th, and Leeds United 16th. Who cares about the rest then.

Written by Loveawaydays2 February 16 2026 15:36:42