What a Manchester City Punishment Could Change

Manchester City’s situation could reshape the Premier League pecking order if serious sanctions land. The knock-on effects, from squad churn to the title race, would be felt right across the division.

I think there is a very real chance that City find themselves up the proverbial creek without a paddle.

The rumours suggest that they will find out their punishment before the start of next season. Unlike Everton and Forest, City not only have significantly more charges, several of those charges are linked to them actively trying to impede the investigation.

Why the scale of the case matters

Common sense suggests that you only try to impede an investigation into potential cheating if you know they will find evidence of you cheating. Even if they are able to hide that evidence, they cannot hide the fact that they have intentionally tried to slow or stop the investigation. They have absolutely no chance of avoiding being found guilty of those charges.

The rumours are suggesting a 60 point deduction. The rules do not allow for the EPL to unilaterally relegate a club. For a start the Championship would have to agree to take any club forced down. But they can deduct enough points to effectively guarantee they are relegated, although the Championship would still have to accept them (although there seems little chance of them refusing).

Appeals, influence and the fallout

If City are given a huge deduction of points that would relegate them, they will certainly appeal the decision to every governing body they can, with each of them having to uphold the EPL's ruling for it to stick.

The issue here is every new entity that becomes involved creates a new opportunity for a wealthy state owned club to grease the wheels so that the ruling falls in their favour.

If City are forced to accept the ruling then there are two possible outcomes for City. Either the owners decide to cut their losses and sell up, or they stick around and try and clean up their image. I would not like to speculate as to which way they will go. We have to remember that the City owners bought the club as part of a PR campaign to improve their public image. This fallout will do the opposite of what they intended, maybe they cut and run, or maybe they stick around to try and tidy up their image.

What it could mean on the pitch

Either way in the short term it will have a huge impact on the club and their ability to compete. You would imagine that Pep will not want to stick around for a season in the Championship, likewise many players will want to jump ship. They will also need to move on a lot of players to stick within the financial restrictions they will face from a lower income and to stay within the FFP rules of the Championship (which actually differ slightly from those in the EPL). You would imagine with the reason for their potential relegation they will be forced to be squeaky clean in terms of their accounting.

This will likely happen either next season or the following season if they can delay it by appealing (which they almost certainly will).

You would imagine that it would put them out of being realistic title challengers for the next 4-5 years, with them being relegated and having to regain their EPL status, then needing to build a EPL title challenging squad (while staying within FFP this time).

A shift in the Premier League power balance

That means a shift in power in the EPL. I think we will see Arsenal and Liverpool continue to be title challengers and if we continue to rebuild as effectively as we have over the past year or so then we could also be in the mix as title challengers. To be honest I think if we can get a couple of top quality midfielders this summer and Liverpool can sort their defence then I do not see much of a difference between ourselves, Liverpool and Arsenal in terms of squad and ability. Who ultimately becomes the dominant team amongst us will depend on future recruitment, development of the existing squad and fortune with injuries.

I think Chelsea, Villa and Newcastle will form a core of that second group looking to get UCL qualification. Spurs, if they avoid relegation and can get someone in to run the club with vision and acumen, then they have the means to be in that group (although they will need to avoid relegation this season to be in with a shout). Chelsea and Newcastle I suspect are the most likely to be able to kick on and become potential title challengers if the top three have a poor season or start to drop off slightly. Villa I think will struggle financially to truly compete and if or when they lose Emery they might drop back to mid-table.

You will then have your well run mid-table clubs who if they have a good year could challenge for European places. Clubs like Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth and Everton (who we should not discount now they have the revenue from their new stadium).

Then depending on what happens with City they will probably be in that third group when or if they get promoted back up from the Championship and they still have the financial backing of the current owners. They will then as seasons go by start to re-establish themselves towards the top of the table.

The new financial rules is starting to take effect in my opinion. It is becoming harder for clubs to break into the upper echelons, whilst also creating a more even playing field across the league as a whole. The clubs like ourselves and Liverpool that can leverage a massive global following along with those clubs who have new large stadiums that can bring in bigger revenue (Arsenal, Spurs, Everton) are the ones who are most likely to be able to stay challenging towards the upper end of the table. Clubs like Newcastle, City and Chelsea it is less clear how they will be able to challenge as their wealthy owners can no longer be leveraged to help close that gap as effectively as they have done over the past decade or so. Although all three are clubs with large stadiums that can bring in more money than a lot of the other EPL clubs, that should put them solidly in that second group of teams. If they can continue to grow their global appeal then they might be able to become genuine consistent title challengers.

Overall though I suspect that the new financial restrictions will lead to a more level playing field and what we will see is clubs like United and Liverpool always probably being title challengers (or a couple of signings away from being title challengers), with the rest cycling though Arsenal are on top now, but that could be Chelsea in a couple of years, or Newcastle, or Spurs (as mad as that sounds) depending on how teams build their squads and the peaks and declines.

Written by Shappy April 4 2026 13:26:19