Where Manchester United Are Right Now

A discussion of what Manchester United currently are as a team, why recent league finishes may have flattered performance levels, and how realistic expectations should shape recruitment and managerial decisions.

I'm interested to hear what everyone's view is of where / what Manchester United are right now.

Not where / what we should be, or what we have been, but where / what we are right now.

For me, what we should be is a top side that challenges on all fronts every season, with an understanding that every 4-5 years we will probably have an "off" year as a team reaches the end of its cycle and we start to build the next team. We should be a club that trusts in youth, develops young players, and plays attractive, attacking football that gets you off your seat.

However, we haven't been that for over a decade; in truth, maybe longer (I don't think we were really that club in the final few years under SAF).

Which brings me to what we are now. Right now we are a mid-table side, capable of the odd decent season and the occasional cup win. We bounce around between 12th and 5th, not really good enough for the UCL, but we do occasionally qualify for it, and when we do we realise quite quickly that we aren't at that level.

We have been this mid-table side ever since LvG dismantled what remained of our last top side (to be fair it did need rebuilding as it was heavily declining). This is what we have been every year since, with the exception of two odd seasons (one under Jose and one under Ole) where we managed to finish 2nd (without really challenging for the title). However, if we are honest, on both occasions that was more due to the poor quality of the rest of the league rather than our own quality.

That is something I think we often forget to factor in when assessing our season's performance. We look at our games and results in a bubble, without really factoring in our opposition.

Take last season, for example: we finished 3rd and had a good run of results once Carrick took over. Yet, in truth, the performances of many of our rivals were either poor or inconsistent, which gave us the opportunity to get results more due to their poor form rather than our great play. While we also massively outperformed our expected goals both for and against. Now, stats like expected goals can be a little woolly and they aren't an exact science.

Great players, for example, will often score more than their expected goals because they are better finishers than the majority of players. However, overall, most teams eventually return to pretty much the expected goals model over time. Last season we scored around 12 goals more than the expected goal model suggests we should, and we conceded around 6 fewer than the model predicted. Which resulted in us getting the additional points that lifted us from 5th/6th to 3rd.

Now, did we outperform the expected model due to tactical or technical excellence, or did we outperform it due to luck and poor performance from our opponents? For example, when we scored a low xG goal, was it an unstoppable world class shot from a genuinely world class player who pulls off shots like that on a regular basis? Or was it saveable and the keeper at fault? Or did the opposition defence not close down the space to allow the shot?

I would suggest that it was more due to the poor performance of our opponents rather than world class play from ourselves.

We should have finished 5th/6th last season; that was about our level across the whole season. But because we finished 3rd, our expectations of this season are probably higher than they should be.

Now, understanding what we are is vitally important for both our expectations, and for how the club is run.

As fans, if we understand that we are a mid-table club with ambitions to get back to being a top club, then that tempers our disappointment when we don't challenge for major honours. Which in turn reduces the toxic atmosphere around the club.

As for the club, they need to understand where we are as a club so they can make the right decisions moving forward. For example, the kind of players you sign and the type of manager you hire will be vastly different for a mid-table club trying to climb to become a top team over the next 2-3 years, compared to a top club that has fallen off a bit and needs a boost/readjustment to get back on track.

Hiring short-term managers like Jose Mourinho or Antonio Conte are great when you have a top squad that needs a kick up the backside and a few top signings to get back on track, but are terrible managers to hire if you're a mid-table team trying to climb to become a top side, as Spurs can confirm.

Just like signing ageing players like Zlatan, Cavani or Schweinsteiger are fine when you are a top side that needs a boost, but they are not good signings for a mid-table side aiming to be a top club over the next 2-3 years. They block the pathway for the players your team will depend upon once you get to being a top side.

So where / what do you think our club is currently? And if you are honest, do you judge our performances against what we actually are or what you expect us to be?

Written by Shappy October 29 2026 10:24:15