Why Chelsea's Ownership Is Playing the Long Game
A look at how Chelsea's current custodians are thinking about return on investment, timelines, and why success now is less important than dominance later.
How the owners make their money
A lot has been said about our custodians and why they bought the club, so let's have a look.
First things first, how will Eghbali, Clearlake and others make money on Chelsea? There is a popular belief that they will sell players and earn money that way, or through other short term methods. In reality, that is impossible.
There are also rumours that, as part of the deal, they agreed to no dividends, meaning no taking money out of the club during this period.
They bought the club for 2.5 billion GBP and another 1.75 billion GBP was invested. That is more than 4 billion GBP in total. There is no way to create meaningful return on investment based on selling players. The club has income of around 600m per year. Even if they took 25 percent out, around 150m, it would take roughly 30 years just to cover the investment.
The only meaningful way to achieve a high return is through increased value in an eventual sale. That is the only way. Selling players, buying youngsters, none of this directly benefits the owners financially.
Timeline to sell the club
When Clearlake, Eghbali and others bought Chelsea, they committed to not selling the club to a third party for at least 10 years. That was in the spring of 2022, so the earliest possible sale date is 2032.
Private equity firms usually work on a timeline of around five to eight years in large investments to turn a profit, so we should not expect it to take much longer than that. Personally, I think they will try to finish a new or upgraded stadium, or at least get it to the final stages where everything is approved and construction has started.
From this perspective, the target sales date looks to be around 2032 to 2035. Considering likely delays with the stadium, it is more realistic to look at the later end of that range. Most likely, the target date will be 2034 or 2035.
How they increase the value
There are a few different ways to do this. The biggest one is the stadium, which I already mentioned. Even if it is not finished, as long as a new buyer has certainty, with everything approved and construction underway, that alone will increase the club's value. A new owner could even take credit for building the stadium.
Another factor is the multi club model. We should expect at least one or two more clubs to join before the target date.
The last one is winning. They need at least three to five years of being not just contenders, but favourites. It is far easier to create a club that dominates for three to five years than one that wins sustainably for 10 to 15 years.
That is why the priority is not winning now. It is about creating a monster that will be winning in the years closer to the sale date.
To achieve that, you need three to five years of consistent winning and another two to four years as contenders, so the transition into that dominant phase is smoother, with a strong core of players.
If we look at 2034 as the target year, that means being dominant from around 2030, and at least from 2027 being serious contenders for all titles.
The rebuilds
When you are rebuilding, there are a few options. You either go long term, building a young squad and letting it grow together, or you go short term, buying players at their peak for consistent winning and then effectively feeding the machine and rebuilding every five to seven years.
Every rebuild carries risks of failure, stagnation and starting from scratch. We saw that with the first attempt, when we added Koulibaly, Sterling, Aubameyang and others. The original plan was probably to keep winning until the sale, but it is not that simple.
Contrary to some narratives, we are not buying players to sell them for profit. That does not create value at the target date. We buy young players so we can sell those who fail and keep those who succeed as part of the core.
They decided not to do two or three short term rebuilds, but instead commit to one rebuild. Not just long term, but ultra long term.
So what is the goal for the first five years, from 2022 to 2027?
Build a young core. Think of Chelsea in the 2000s, building around Lampard, Cech, Terry, Essien, Drogba and Cole. Players in their early twenties who went on to compete for titles well into the next decade.
They are trying to build the same thing now, with Colwill, Caicedo, Enzo, Palmer and Estevao. They do not care if players like Gittens or Garnacho fail, because they can be sold and replaced by someone who might succeed.
They still want to be in the Champions League and still want to be seen as successful, but again, the real target is winning later. It is effectively tanking, not for a draft like in US sports, but to build a young core. The goal is not to win now, but to build a team that will dominate between 2028 and 2034.
So when will we buy experienced strikers, goalkeepers and centre backs, and why were some not brought in for Maresca or Pochettino?
Simply put, experienced players do not fit the timeline. Spending huge money on a 27 year old is seen as a waste of resources, because that player will not be here in 2032.
More experienced players will come in around 2027 or 2028, when they fit the timeline. Maybe not 30 year olds, but there could be a point where 100m is invested in a new striker because the aim is to seriously compete and win.
So yes, do not expect a new world class centre back or goalkeeper this summer, and most likely not a striker either. That will come in the summer of 2027 or even 2028.
I know that is not what Chelsea fans want to hear, but that is how I see the current situation. That is my understanding of the timeline, going ultra long, with a 10 year perspective rather than a two or three year one.
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